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Real Estate Housing Market - Oh, It's Just Back To 'Normal' ... Yea, Right!
from: Bob Schwartz"It's just back to normal', "Just a seasonal slow-down', "A
normal minor adjustment', "A great time to buy, with a much
wider selection', "A cooling market'", "A soft landing", "A
slight tapering off" etc. Yes, these P.C. phrases are now
replacing the "We should have a strong market for the
foreseeable future" industry line prevalent just a few short
months ago.
The sad fact is people are still in self-denial here. We're
"special" because of our weather. We are known as America's
Finest City after all. It's still common to hear someone say,
"If you don't buy now, you're going to get priced out of the
market!"
Talk about your irrational exuberance in the Southern California
real estate market. In a 2004 summer poll in the LA area,
residents believed prices would continue to go up by more than
20% a year for another decade!
What will be the industry P.C. phrases we'll be hearing in about
six to nine months? "It may well go as: "This home is a great
buy, why just nine months ago you would have paid $25,000+
more...what a great savings." Naturally, you would be talking to
a buyer. For a seller (who has owned for some years) you might
say: "Well, you are still making a profit. Who could have even
known that the market would have turned down so fast?" For the
downtown high-rise buyer who though they got a real deal on the
final phase of their Gas Lamp digs, a real estate agent may be
saying: "Well, because the resale value is actually below your
100% interest only trust deed, you really should consult a real
estate attorney and/or meet with your lender to propose they
accept your deed in lieu of foreclosure".
Are you reading this and thinking I'm way off base? Here are a
few recent headlines:
National Association of Realtors reports, in part: Total
existing-home sales - including single-family, town homes,
condominiums and co-ops - were down 5.7 percent in December from
November.
Time Magazine reports that 'Vegas Condos Go Cold."
The Washington Post reports "Real estate groups in the
Washington area have also reported declines to varying degrees."
"The bloom is definitely off the housing rose. Housing peaked
last summer and has been weakening ever since," said Mark Zandi,
chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.
New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg recently said the real
estate market was slowing "dramatically" and only a "miracle"
could stop soaring mortgage rates from eating into housing
prices. "The real estate market is slowing down dramatically and
we're going to have a problem down the road," Bloomberg said.
"If people who want to sell their houses have to wait a longer
time before someone comes along and buys it, it would be a
miracle if prices didn't start to go down," he said.
"'The market has definitely peaked,' said Jack Kyser, chief
economist with the L.A. County Economic Development Corp. 'The
fever has broken and now the question people are asking
themselves is if there is a crash ahead.'"
This is my own opinion on a realistic view of what lies ahead as
far as the San Diego real estate market: A multi-year
depreciation that could easily take 30% off the highs which
reached this market's peak during the summer of 2005! Plus, I
foresee headlines, maybe even national, announcing how the San
Diego high-rise downtown boom has turned into a foreclosure city!
As a realistic San Diego Realtor, I provide these facts to my
sellers. If their property is not generating meaningful activity
within the first month of being listed, it would be prudent to
consider a revised marketing plan similar to what many San Diego
real estate developers are doing. This would be a combination of
value-range reduction as well as agent and buyer incentives to
position the property as the best total value for the area.
I think as Realtors we must adapt and not deny. To otherwise
will have a dramatic impact on your financial health and
community reputation
Copyright 2006 - websitetrafficbuilders.com All rights reserved.
About the author:
Bob Schwartz, is a Certified Residential Specialist, San Diego
real estate broker with http://www.Brokerforyou.com w/over 27
years of residential real estate experience. Bob's other sites
are: San Diego for sale by owner,
http://www.san-diego-for-sale-by-owner.com, Downtown San Diego
real estate, http://www.downtown-san-diego-real-estate.com
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